Climate

PEI Report Chapter 7 : Click Here

PEI Report Appendices : Click Here

Glossary and Abbreviations : Click Here

This section summarises the preliminary assessment findings at this point in the EIA process for climate (Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Assessment), based on PEI Report Chapter 7: Climate.

Baseline

For the impact of the project on climate, the baseline conditions relate to current and future anticipated conditions, with regards to GHG emissions, without implementing the project. Baseline is split into the historic baseline, setting out current conditions and the future baseline, which sets out future conditions based upon there being no schemes.

The primary source of historic emissions data is the UK GHG Inventory and the most recent dataset (2019) estimates total UK GHG emissions at 454.8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e). The largest emitting sector was transport, accounting for 122.1 MtCO2e (26% of national emissions). Current road user emissions (vehicles using the highways infrastructure) is 198,668 tCO2e, the predicted emissions for the opening year of the project (2031) is 191,236 tCO2e, the modelled future year (2046) emissions is 211,279 tCO2e, and over the assumed project lifetime (60 years) the modelled emissions is 12,997,413 tCO2e.

For the climate change resilience assessment, the baseline conditions relate to the current and future anticipated climatic conditions. Both summer and winter temperatures are projected to increase due to climate change. The largest increases in temperature are projected to be in the mean daily maximum summer temperatures. Mean precipitation rates in the area surrounding the project are also anticipated to change significantly throughout the next century.

Construction

Total routewide emissions associated with construction are estimated to be 905,588 tCO2e – 1,400,052 tCO2e. These estimated emissions would represent 0.05%-0.07% of the Fourth Carbon Budget (2023-2027) and 0.05%-0.08% of the Fifth Carbon Budget (2028-2032), respectively. Therefore, this is not considered significant as the proposed project in isolation would not have a material impact on the ability of the government to meet its carbon budgets.

The largest source of emissions during the construction phase of the project is expected to arise from construction materials. Minimising GHG emissions through design is a core principle of Highways England’s standards, the UK Government’s Infrastructure Carbon Review and PAS 2080. This includes delivering measures such as material recovery and using recycled materials; reducing construction traffic; and using renewable energy. These measures will be set out in the EMP for the project.

With regards to the climate change resilience assessment, it has been assumed that the EMP and other associated risk management and site safety procedures deployed during the construction phase will be implemented effectively and successful in mitigating climate change risk during the construction of the project. Taking this into consideration, the UKCP18 climate projections for the construction phase (2020s) also suggest that there is unlikely to be significant changes in climatic conditions within this period such that a likely significant effect could occur. As such, a detailed assessment of climate change resilience in construction has not been taken forward.

Preliminary construction assessment

• No likely significant effects anticipated from the impacts of the project on climate (GHG emissions) during the construction phase of the project.
• No likely significant effects anticipated due to the vulnerability of the project to climate change during the construction phase of the project.

Operation

During the operational phase of the project, the total routewide operational GHG emissions over the 60 year assumed project lifetime are estimated to result in an additional (net increase of) 2,981,603 – 2,986,043 tCO2e. Estimated emissions would represent 0.3% of the Sixth Carbon Budget and so are not considered significant as the proposed project in isolation would not have a material impact on the ability of the government to meet its carbon budgets.

For the climate change resilience assessment, the preliminary assessment has found that most climate change risks during the operational phase of the project were ‘not significant’ due to effective embedded mitigation measures in the existing project design (for example, the design of attenuation ponds and drainage design with allowances for climate change) or through monitoring and maintenance regimes assumed to be in place throughout operation.

Preliminary operation assessment

• No likely significant effects anticipated from the impacts of the project on climate (GHG emissions) during the operational phase of the project.
• No likely significant effects anticipated due to the vulnerability of the project to climate change during the operational phase of the project.