Climate

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Baseline

The assessment of climate includes the effects of greenhouse gas emissions associated with the proposed scheme, and resilience of the proposed scheme to cope with extreme weather events.

The baseline for the assessment of climate resilience is made up of the current climate observations and future projected climate conditions and extreme weather events in the local area. UK climate projections predict an increase in annual temperatures and rainfall, with wetter winters and drier summers and increases in the frequency of heatwaves, prolonged periods with no rainfall and days with heavy rainfall (when precipitation is greater than 25mm).

Construction

The proposed scheme would result in greenhouse gas emissions during construction from the raw materials required, transport and construction processes. The provisional estimate of emissions from the construction phase total 47,000 tCO2e (metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents).

Mitigation measures would be implemented to reduce emissions during construction of the proposed scheme, for example through specification of ultra-low sulphur diesel, management and minimisation of energy use, sourcing recycled or secondary materials from the local area and exploring the use of lower carbon materials.

The proposed scheme would be designed to be resilient to impacts arising from projected future weather events and climatic conditions and designed in accordance with current planning, design and engineering practice and codes.

Preliminary construction assessment

• No likely significant effects with regard to greenhouse gas emissions during the construction of the scheme.
• No likely significant effects with regard to the vulnerability of the proposed scheme to climate change during construction.

Operation

During operation, emissions would be generated primarily from the exhaust pipes of vehicles using the road network, and from maintenance and refurbishment of the proposed scheme. Vehicles using the proposed scheme would constitute the vast majority of the greenhouse gas emissions across the proposed scheme’s assumed lifetime (including both construction and operation). It is considered that the emissions from the proposed scheme in isolation would not have a material impact on the ability of the government to meet its carbon budgets, and therefore is not anticipated to give rise to a significant effect on climate.

Climate change risks to the proposed scheme assets have been assessed during operation of the road. Potential impacts include increased heat stress for maintenance workers, damage to road surfaces from high temperatures, flooding and weakening of embankments from storms. The design has embedded measures to ensure resilience to these potential impacts. Climate change risks to the proposed scheme have been assessed and found to be not significant because of mitigation measures already built in to the design and regular maintenance reviews during operation to ensure the design is working as intended. These measures would make the proposed scheme resilient to future climate conditions.

Preliminary operation assessment

• No likely significant effects with regard to greenhouse gas emissions during the operation of the scheme.
• No likely significant effects with regard to the vulnerability of the proposed scheme to climate change during operation.